For The Holiday Season
This is a message I received from Mark Johnson of Playing for Change, and I wanted to share it with everyone:
“Behind the storms of daily conflict, crisis and struggle, it is the artist, and the poet and the musician that continues the quiet work of the centuries, building bridges of experience between peoples, and reminding us the universality of our feelings, desires, and despairs, and reminding us that the forces that unite are deeper than those that divide.”
(email subscribers, view on my blog)
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO EVERYONE!
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China Overtakes U.S. Car Market
The Associated Press recently published a report saying that the Chinese now buy more cars and trucks than Americans. It appears that over 12.7 million new cars will be sold in China compared to about 10.3 million projected to be sold in America. This is the first time ever that any country has surpassed the U.S. in new car sales.
This could have been good news for the U.S. because China loves GM’s Buick…they consider it a luxury car. But alas, China requires that Buick build it’s cars in China—not the United States. Interesting concept.
Well, that at least should help GM’s bottom line even if it doesn’t make any new jobs in the U.S.
Women Entrepreneurs(?)
Where are all the women entrepreneurs? There is a scarcity of women entrepreneurs, and frankly, I don’t understand why. The rate of men entrepreneurs creating new businesses has increased from 370 per 100,000 population in 1996, to 420 per 100,000 population in 2008.
At the same time, the number of women entrepreneurs creating new businesses has actually decreased…from 260 per 100,000 population in 1996, to 240 per 100,000 in 2008—which is up from 200 per 100,000 population in 2007. Let’s hope the upward jump in new business creations by women entrepreneurs in 2008 will continue through 2009, and beyond.
For me, one of the most inspirational entrepreneurs in the world is the late Dame Anita Roddick, founder and creator of The Body Shop. When she first wrote Body and Soul, I would buy several copies at a time and give then out to clients and friends who were struggling to make their business succeed. I, and many others, believe Anita was one of the greatest entrepreneurs of modern times…so where are the women that should be following in her footsteps?
In 2007, twice as many men entrepreneurs started new businesses as women entrepreneurs. That is sad news indeed. Capability is certainly not the issue; nor is education; nor is opportunity…I’m at a loss.
However, it does lead me to think that perhaps not as many women want to start a business. However, this is just a guess on my part. That is why I would like to hear the thoughts and opinions of others, as to why there are not more women entrepreneurs. Please let me know your thoughts, and I will incorporate them into a later post on this subject.
NOTE: All data is taken from the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity, prepared annually by Robert W. Fairlie, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
Lies, Damned lies, and Statistics–Update!
Good news! Since I wrote about this subject last week, the November numbers have been released by the government, and they indicate we only lost 11,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate dropped from 10.2% to 10.0%. I also read that the folks in Congress and the Administration loudly cheered the good news all around.
WAIT JUST A MINUTE—if we increased the number of unemployed by 11,000, how could the unemployment rate go DOWN?
Very simple—statistical manipulation. The unemployment rate fell because of the way the government conducts surveys of households to determine who was looking for work during the 4 weeks prior to the survey. From their surveys, it was determined that the “labor force” fell by 100,000 jobs for the third straight month, and the “participation rate” (the portion of the population that is employed, or looking for work) fell to the lowest level since the recession began.
Consequently, we did not bring the unemployment rate down by having fewer people unemployed…we did it by having fewer people looking for work during the survey’s prior 4-week period. In other words, When fewer people look for work, that is fewer people counted as unemployed…so naturally the unemployment rate would drop.
This is one of the problems with using statistics instead of real numbers to present absolute conclusions. Statisticians try to make us think whatever they want us to think—it’s called: “Spin.” You get the picture.
All things considered, I will stand by the numbers I presented in my last post, and say that I believe the real rate of unemployment is very close to 30% when including the “involuntary part-time” unemployed.
Yup—lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
Mark Twain popularized the old saying “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” When Twain wrote these words in his autobiographical book, he must have had the government in mind, because the government is, by far, the master of statistical manipulation.
Everyone knows that the “official” unemployment rate is now at 10.2% of the work force, or about 15.7 million workers. But, what we are not being told is how many people are actually unemployed but not being counted as unemployed because of some strange government arbitrary reason. Let’s look at the government’s own survey numbers:
- Government reported unemployed persons—15.7 Million.
- Persons marginally attached to the labor force and who wanted to work, were available to work, and had looked for work during the prior 12 months—but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the government survey, and therefore not counted—2.4 Million.
- Persons marginally attached to the labor force, but had not looked for work during the 4 weeks preceding the government survey for personal reasons (family responsibilities, school, etc.) and therefore not counted—1.6 Million.
- Discouraged workers who are no longer looking for work, and therefore not counted, because they believe there are no jobs available for them—808,000.
- In addition, there are those termed “involuntary part-time workers,” which means that these people have been laid off and are unemployed, but take a menial temporary part-time job just to feed their families, and therefore are not counted—9.3 Million.
Since these are government numbers, they are suspect, but they are all we have, so let’s look at some totals. If we only add up all the unemployed numbers above, we find 20.5 Million people unemployed—not 15.7 Million. Then when we add in the “involuntary part timers,” we get 29.8 Million people basically “unemployed.” This is nearly double the “official” number published by the government. There are likely many more that have dropped so far below the government’s radar they no longer get surveyed.
Government press releases and media pundits tell us the recession is over and recovery is in progress—so, where are the jobs? Small business has always pulled our fat out of the fire in past recessions, but they cannot do it this time, because of restrictive lending practices by banks, repressive government regulations, and the threat of government imposed higher operating costs, e.g., healthcare and higher taxes.
If you’re a small-business owner, you just might want to jot a note to your Congressional delegation and tell them that.
Yup—lies, damned lies, and statistics!
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