Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
Mark Twain popularized the old saying “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” When Twain wrote these words in his autobiographical book, he must have had the government in mind, because the government is, by far, the master of statistical manipulation.
Everyone knows that the “official” unemployment rate is now at 10.2% of the work force, or about 15.7 million workers. But, what we are not being told is how many people are actually unemployed but not being counted as unemployed because of some strange government arbitrary reason. Let’s look at the government’s own survey numbers:
- Government reported unemployed persons—15.7 Million.
- Persons marginally attached to the labor force and who wanted to work, were available to work, and had looked for work during the prior 12 months—but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the government survey, and therefore not counted—2.4 Million.
- Persons marginally attached to the labor force, but had not looked for work during the 4 weeks preceding the government survey for personal reasons (family responsibilities, school, etc.) and therefore not counted—1.6 Million.
- Discouraged workers who are no longer looking for work, and therefore not counted, because they believe there are no jobs available for them—808,000.
- In addition, there are those termed “involuntary part-time workers,” which means that these people have been laid off and are unemployed, but take a menial temporary part-time job just to feed their families, and therefore are not counted—9.3 Million.
Since these are government numbers, they are suspect, but they are all we have, so let’s look at some totals. If we only add up all the unemployed numbers above, we find 20.5 Million people unemployed—not 15.7 Million. Then when we add in the “involuntary part timers,” we get 29.8 Million people basically “unemployed.” This is nearly double the “official” number published by the government. There are likely many more that have dropped so far below the government’s radar they no longer get surveyed.
Government press releases and media pundits tell us the recession is over and recovery is in progress—so, where are the jobs? Small business has always pulled our fat out of the fire in past recessions, but they cannot do it this time, because of restrictive lending practices by banks, repressive government regulations, and the threat of government imposed higher operating costs, e.g., healthcare and higher taxes.
If you’re a small-business owner, you just might want to jot a note to your Congressional delegation and tell them that.
Yup—lies, damned lies, and statistics!
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